Norwich City have no reason to panic despite slump in form

Two poor performances against Bristol City and Sheffield Wednesday, coupled with a three-point gap to the relegation zone, have increased supporters' concern that the Canaries are tracking in the wrong direction. 

Injuries have added to an imperfect storm for the Canaries, who will be hoping to use the international break to analyse and reset after a testing block of six matches. 

The best measure of City's performances is via underlying data - which Johannes Hoff Thorup and Ben Knapper will be poring over alongside analysts to assess their Championship progress. 

It cuts through the results to evaluate the consistency and level that City are performing at compared to others in the Championship. Most of it suggests the Canaries are currently underperforming in terms of their points total. 

Expected goals (XG) isn't everybody's cup of tea. Part of its problem comes from its name, but it is essentially a metric that grades the quality of chances a team creates (XG) and concedes (XGA). 

Thorup would immediately identify that the problem with expected goals is that it doesn't quantity passages of play that don't end with a shot on goal—which Norwich have created through their possession. That is true, but it offers a snapshot of their attacking and defensive work. 

City have scored 23 goals from an expected goals for of 20.9 and conceded 22 from an expected goals against of 18.8, according to FBRef. That is an underperformance defensively of around five goals. 

For context, City's difference in expected goals for to against (+2.1) is the same as league leaders Sunderland - and points to a general underperformance given they are creating better chances than they are conceding.

The problem is, only Leeds (43) have missed more big chances than Thorup's side (38). That points to a lack of quality finishing in the decisive moments. 

Dig deeper into the individual match logs, and it shows that just two teams have underperformed their expected goals in matches against Norwich in the opening 15 Championship games - Coventry (scoring 0 from 1.1XG) and Watford (scoring 1 from 1.7XG).

Angus Gunn's absence and defensive lapses has hurt Norwich City. (Image: Daniel Hanbury/Focus Images Ltd)

Thorup said at his post-match press conference following Saturday's defeat to Bristol City: "It seems like every shot on goal that the opposition has on our goal at the moment is a conceded goal for us." 

Bristol City netted twice from two shots worth 0.29 out of 1, Sheffield Wednesday's second goal was valued at just 0.08, Cardiff converted two chances worth a combined XG of 0.22 - that suggests Norwich are on the wrong side of the data, even through luck or a lack of quality. 

Norwich aren't conceding high-quality chances often, only five teams in the opening 15 games have amassed a total expected goals of 1.5 against them, but are letting in goals consistently. That data shows that the goals conceded column should have five fewer than it currently does. 

City sit 13th for shots on target against per 90 (four per game), yet goals/shots against is the sixth highest in the league. Therein is the problem. 

It could be consistent opposition overperformance, but the goalkeeper switch in the last six matches has undeniably made an impact. George Long has conceded 12 goals in that period from an expected goals against rate of 10.3.

Only Luton's Thomas Kaminski (-0.38) and Sheffield Wednesday's James Beadle (-0.28) have lower post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes performance than Long (-0.26), with negative numbers indicating either bad luck or lower shot-stopping ability. 

Per 90, Long is underperforming his post-shot expected goals rate by -0.26. That is double Gunn's rate, albeit with a bigger sample of matches, at -0.13. 

But to pin the blame all at Long's door would be wrong. He has faced 29 shots on target during his six-game run, whilst Gunn has faced 35 in nine matches - 3.89 per game compared to Long's 4.83 per game, which shows a slight increase in chances permitted on City's goal. 

Not just an increase in chances, but an increase in quality. Long has faced an average expected goals-against rate of 1.71 in his six matches, compared to Gunn's 1.04 from his nine. 

Equally, as Thorup has highlighted, Long could do nothing about Amankwah Forson's error that led to Cardiff's late winner nor the failed headers that allowed Dominic Iorfa to get on the end of a set piece for Sheffield Wednesday's second goal. 

That is not to dismiss any errors from Long, but the data shows he hasn't been as well protected as Gunn during his stint between the sticks. 

But, the reality of that data suggests a return for City's favoured number one could help elevate performances pretty quickly. 

Norwich are conceding more shots on their goal than prior to this six game block. (Image: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd) There are areas where City need to improve—for example, they rank fourth for possession and are 23rd for losses inside their own half, suggesting their deep stages of build-up play have been impressive. However, they sit 12th in the Championship for passes in the opposition half, suggesting connecting their possession through the pitch has proven difficult. 

Saturday's defeat to Bristol City documented those shortcomings - despite having long sequences of possession, among the highest of any Championship team this season, City were unable to play through the Robins' very strong press. The absences of Kenny McLean and Marcelino Nunez compounded those woes. 

That led to longer balls more frequently up the pitch but also to more losses of possession in their own final third (11); only against Swansea (14) and Coventry (13) have they made more. 

That said, despite sitting 16th for shots on goal, the chances that Norwich are creating are high-value, which is why their expected goal rate sits among the top five in the division. 

Part of what comes next for City will be extracting more out of their forward players to ease the load on Borja Sainz after Josh Sargent's injury absence. 

Ante Crnac is one of the potential striking solutions, but his start to life in England has been slower than some anticipated. That is natural given the need for adaptation and integration into the side, but it will be up to Thorup and his coaches to increase his involvement. 

Ante Crnac's Norwich City shot map for 2024/25. (Image: Fotmob) Throughout the campaign so far, Crnac has had 11 shots on goal worth an expected goals value of 1.03. Six of those efforts have come from outside the box and are relatively low-quality. 

On average, Crnac's shots have come from 18.6 yards from goal. That is further out than both Sainz and Sargent on average. Part of involving the Croat is about linking City's possession to their attacking players more consistently, but it also revolves around encouraging him to shoot in better areas.

Opta Analyst's expected points table calculates that City should have 23 points based on their underlying data this season - that is five points greater than they actually have on the board. That would put them ninth in the current table. 

As the data shows, a decrease in their defensive aspects and underperformance of their performance metrics has contributed to this dip somewhat, alongside a need to improve their chance creation. 

Outside of the final two matches against Sheffield Wednesday and Bristol City, the performances have been largely consistent and offered reason for encouragement. Those defeats were both wrapped in plenty of mitigation surrounding injuries, player fatigue and inexperience. 

The concern is that recent defeats hamper confidence to a detrimental level that has a lasting impact on performances, but those who have been sidelined aren't caught up in the current performances or results. 

After this break, some bodies should return in the opening weeks of games, and some of those pushed to the limit over the last three matches should have been more rested. 

It is a test for Thorup and his coaching staff, but more solutions should present themselves and Norwich will hope to return to the level of performance seen prior to the October break. 

As they sought to implement a new style of play, there were bound to be inconsistencies and peaks and troughs, but City aren't doing too badly despite what the league table says. The challenge through this period is remaining even and extracting the emotion from it. 

Overall, the signs are largely positive but still paint the picture of a team transitioning towards something rather than being at the end stage of their journey. This season is about seeing progress over 46 matches rather than arbitrary targets. 

It is about cutting through the picture painted by the league table and assessing trends, performances and the data rather than what happens week to week - that is partially why City opted to move away from David Wagner in the summer. 

Norwich City supporters have kept trust in the project and Johannes Hoff Thorup. (Image: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd) Expectations were inflated massively after heavy victories over Hull and Watford, it has turned just as rapidly after three straight defeats. Where City truthfully lay is somewhere in the centre ground at this stage. 

There is no need to panic or overdramatise City's current situation; to do so risks unnecessarily exacerbating it. Recent results paint an arguably more concerning picture than the performances and underlying data—Thorup will stress that point to his squad over the break. 

That said, clearly, there is a need to reverse the results and win more matches, but the evidence suggests that this will happen sooner rather than later if City can make small tweaks. 

With players coming back, some respite for those in the firing line over the last block of games and a chance for increased contact time on the training pitches on Colney, there is every chance City can reverse this form, and quickly.