The Ukraine crisis looks set to drive up UK food prices after the uncertainty of war accelerated the inflation of farming costs - and sent wheat prices soaring.
Ukraine and Russia produce 29pc of the world's wheat exports, so the growing tensions in the region had already sparked a £15 per tonne rise, even before the invasion by Russian troops.
Aylsham-based grain trader Andrew Dewing said the wheat futures price had leapt another £30 today to £260 per tonne, on what he called a "game-changer day".
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Amid the continuing uncertainty in world markets, prices are expected to continue rising, along with key farming inputs such as fuel and fertiliser.
And that could result in significant food inflation at the shops during what Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Tom Tugendhat described as a "cost-of-living crisis driven by war".
Tony Bambridge, who farms at Blickling and is Norfolk council delegate for the National Farmers' Union, said the cost of commodities such as wheat and barley had a minimal impact on the retail price of bread and beer.
But for individually-sold crops like potatoes, strawberries and lettuces, the rising production costs could not continue to be absorbed by growers, and would lead to food inflation.
"If the farmers don't get inflationary increases they are not going to be in a position to carry on funding the next crop," he said. "We have got triple-digit [percentage] increases in fertiliser, and double-digit increases on cardboard, transport and pesticides and everything else, with labour going up as well.
"So inevitably there is going to have to be an increase in the prices paid to farmers."
Matthew Kealey, head of crop inputs at Honingham Thorpe-based agricultural purchasing group AF Group, said farmers are also worried about future fertiliser supplies, following Germany's decision to halt approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would have carried gas from Russia, essential for fertiliser production.
"Our thoughts go out to both farming community and other civilians in the Ukraine at this difficult time," he said.
"We are monitoring the fertiliser situation closely in conjunction with our supply partners, but we are trying to discourage knee-jerk reactions. The decision by the German chancellor not to commission the Nord Steam 2 pipeline has raised concerns within the industry but the impact is likely to be medium-term.
"In the East we estimate 85pc of our farmer members to have secured their early-season fertiliser requirements, although we do recognise that many of our grassland farmers are still yet to purchase."
Although some of the spiralling costs could be offset by rising commodity prices, Mr Dewing said the high selling prices for wheat were no cause for celebration for Norfolk farmers.
"My advice to farmers would be to be really careful about your reactions to this," he said. "These are amazing prices, but the reason for this price hike is that people are dying.
"It is a commercial opportunity that comes at an incredibly high cost to an anonymous family in the Ukraine.
"It is really bad news for the world, and has very poor implications for agriculture because strategically our government has not anticipated this situation, where Putin could decide we cannot have his wheat or fertiliser."
Alice Jones, a senior market analyst for AHDB (Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board), said while the conflict in Ukraine had caused shockwaves in wheat and oil markets, the biggest issue for food retailers is "probably fuel and haulage".
"In terms of the raw material translating into the price that the consumer sees, wheat is a really minimal cost in a loaf of bread, but the energy price rises and the fuel prices are all feeding into the final consumer price," she said.
"Food inflation might happen, but I don't think the consumer price will go up as much as the initial shocks in the markets suggest."
Worries over seasonal workers
Meanwhile, Ukraine has also become a vital source of seasonal labour for Norfolk fruit and vegetable growers, who are now worried where their summer workforce will come from.
Tim Place, chairman of fruit grower Place UK at Tunstead near North Walsham, said he had expected about half of his 450-strong workforce to come from Ukraine and Russia this summer.
"Our thoughts are with the Ukrainian people at this time," he said. "It is a very worrying situation for us.
"The Seasonal Workers Scheme operators had booked in many people to come from Ukraine so we are now unsure if they will be able to come, or if they will want to come.
"The biggest problem will be the UK embassy will stop so they won't be able to get visas, even if they wanted to.
"We have got a lot of questions and we are asking the scheme operators to look at their Plan B, whether they can find people from Romania and Bulgaria."
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