Even before combining began, harvest 2022 was breaking all records.
Wheat prices - and fertiliser costs - reached record highs this year as global markets went into meltdown following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The shockwaves are still being felt - but as the initial panic subsides, so too have the prices East Anglian farmers can command for their vital cereal crops. The price of wheat has dropped back by about £80/t to £100/t from all-time highs in the mid to high £300s. Meanwhile the cost of running combines and tractors and irrigating and feeding their crops remains painfully high.
Some farmers fear that while this year they can absorb the crippling cost rises they face because of the crops price cushion - next season could be an altogether different story.
But as the combines come out and harvest begins, they are reasonably optimistic about the yield and quality prospects for this year's crop.
The weather has been relatively benign. Both winter and spring cereals got off to a good start with favourable conditions in autumn and spring. But while they haven't been troubled by drought, many crop fields have been left short of water during the vital growing period through April and May. Some farmers have also cut back on fertiliser use because of the high cost.
So overall, they are not expecting an exceptional harvest - and many are predicting around average yields.
Some - such as Andrew Blenkiron, director of Euston Estate, near Thetford, and chairman of the Suffolk National Farmers' Union branch - have already made a start on their barley crop in the first part of July. Others are preparing to get the combines out shortly. As well as barley, they are also looking to their oilseed rape crops which are close to ready - although the main wheat harvest is still a few weeks away. However, the heatwave predicted over the weekend may quicken the pace.
"Farmers at this time of year become single-minded about getting the job done," he says. "That's one of the key things - doing the job in hand."
Normally, as the region's farmers try to navigate their way to achieving the best price for their crops the price variations can be measured in a few pounds per tonne. Now they are dealing with much more extreme variations of tens of pounds - so even a slight delay can have major consequences. It's a nail-biting task. Farmers are having to weigh how much of their crop they should forward-sell while prices are still relatively buoyant - and how much to hang on to.
They will be taking comfort - on one level at least - from the warm summer weather. It means that they have a chance of getting their crops in without high moisture levels - which means they will be able to save on drying bills.
"It's going better than the last two years most certainly," says Andrew Blenkiron. He reckons his barley harvest will be at his five-year average of about 6t/ha - but that will be based on a figure brought down by the previous two poor harvests. "It's grown for seed so it's not really pushed very hard and the majority of it has been on our light land, " he explains. "Overall, we are pretty satisfied."
This first crop was forward-sold and fixed at last year's price - and that's the reality, he says. "We sold some wheat for £340/t for the final bit (of 2021's harvest) but most went out at £220/t, " he says. "There'll be those who wait until the last to sell but the vast majority won't be able to capture those high prices - equally people who sell their crop forward they won't have been able to capture the prices for the new crop."
Feed wheat has dropped from an unbelievable £360/t to about £270/280/t now, he points out. "The big challenge is going to be buying our inputs for next harvest which are extraordinarily high," he adds. Fertiliser is three times the price at £750 to £800/t compared to last year's £220/230/t. Meanwhile tractor fuel at 115p/litre compared to 55p/litre last year has doubled in price, and it is costing around £800 a day to run his combine, and £500-£600 for the tractor. If he has to dry the grain, it would cost three times as much as the price of his electricity which has risen from 11p a unit to 32-34p a unit.
Milling wheat should fetch him £280-300/t compared to £180/£200/t last year - an "absolutely fantastic" price, he says. For his barley he was looking at £260/t. His contracted feed barley was £230/t so not far off what he would have fetched now.
The volatility of prices is a double-edged sword, he suggests. "There will be people who will be incredibly excited about it. Those people will have had the opportunity to sell a huge volume at a high price and have purchased their inputs forward reasonably well."
As he farms on light land and yields can vary greatly, he can't gamble hugely by forward-selling large quantities because he might not be able to deliver and will then be faced with a large bill. "It depends on their appetite for risk how much they can sell - I know some that will sell as much of their grain as they can," he says.
"I'm optimistic for a reasonably good harvest with great prices that will cover the costs and still leave us with a positive margin," he says. "I think that's the general sense for this harvest."
In north Norfolk, Kit Papworth is dealing with his pea harvest with the arrival of Anglia Pea Growers. For cereals he expects to be ahead of his July 19 start date on harvest and make a start over the weekend. "There's no rush. We don't grow a huge amount of winter barley," he says.
Crops are looking "OK" but they are not expecting an exceptional harvest. A fall in prices of £50/t in the last two weeks could even put some farmers into a loss-making position because of the very high costs - and risk management will be key, he suggests.
"That's why farmers need to look very carefully at their margins going into next year," he says. "Farmers need to make sure they are not busy fools."
"The real focus for me at the moment before we get into the cereal harvest is planning for next year and not to do things that are going to lose us money."
The recent £40/t sugar beet announcement from British Sugar was very welcome, he suggested
"Personally I'm very optimistic for all our crops going forward but our risk management is going to have to be exceptional. There will be huge opportunities to make money but we could lose a lot. It's a really tricky balance and you certainly won't get every decision right but this is a really high risk time."
John Collen, who farms at Gisleham, near Lowestoft, thinks he will make a start next week on winter barley, but will switch to oilseed rape as soon as it's ready because he feels that will be the riskier crop. He might reach his wheat by the last week in July.
Dry spells have hit the crops, but they are looking "generally well", he says. On slightly lighter land, ear length in the grains had been affected and that could push down yields, he adds. He has sold a lot of his crop on while the prices have been at their height and this has enabled him to be a little more positive about the higher fertiliser prices. However, harvest 2023 is looking far more vulnerable. He sees cost of production looking very high.
In 2021, they were about £160/170 compared to £170/180/ha in 2022 and £250-plus in 2023 - with a £20/t loss in subsidy to add onto that, he says. "I'm sure we will have seen profit in 2022 but harvest 2023 could easily remove profit completely," he says. Next year, having abandoned sugar beet, he will be returning the crop because of the new offer from British Sugar, he adds.
Guy Smith, who farms at Clacton-on-Sea says spring brought 60/70% of his usual rainfall, and the state of the crops is looking mixed. Barley and oilseed rape are looking "OK" but he is anticipating an average to below average yield. The price volatility are giving farmers a "rollercoaster ride" he says. "It's going to be a curate's egg of a harvest."
Stephen Rash at Wortham, near Diss, is looking to make a start on his winter barley. He is expecting an "average to good" year - but admits selling is like gambling on a roulette wheel.
"It's probably unprecedented times in the cereals market. We get daily texts from the merchants," he says. "Next year I haven't got a clue. Everything that's going on is way beyond my range of experience and beyond most people's range of experience."
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