Ipsos election poll predicts Norfolk and Waveney results

The Ipsos survey still makes bleak reading for the party, with five Norfolk seats - and the cross-border Waveney Valley constituency - among those deemed "too close to call" for next month's General Election.

READ MORE: Norfolk and Waveney General Election 2024 candidate list

The poll identifies Mid Norfolk George Freeman as the Conservative most likely to hang on to their seat.

George Freeman, Conservative candidate for Mid Norfolk (Image: PA)

But it could be a very close call for a number of other Tories, including former prime minister Liz Truss in South West Norfolk.

It predicts Labour would take Norwich North (Alice Macdonald), Great Yarmouth (Keir Cozens) and Lowestoft (Jess Asato) from the Conservatives.

Alice Macdonald, Labour candidate for Norwich North (Image: Alice Macdonald)

The "too close to call seats" are those where the leading party is ahead by less than five percentage points.

The newly-created Waveney Valley constituency is one of them. Ipsos estimates Green Adrian Ramsay would get 33pc of the vote, ahead of 29pc for Reform UK candidate Scott Huggins.

Adrian Ramsay, Green candidate for Waveney Valley

Another "too close to call" seat is North Norfolk, where Liberal Democrat Steffan Aquarone is hoping to unseat Conservative Duncan Baker.

The Ipsos poll has Mr Baker taking 38pc of the vote to Mr Aquarone's 35pc.

Steffan Aquarone, Liberal Democrat candidate for North Norfolk (Image: Alex Broadway)

READ MORE: What are the Norfolk and Suffolk election boundary changes?

Another "toss up" seat is Ms Truss's South West Norfolk constituency. The poll has her surviving by the skin of her teeth, with 31pc of the vote share compared to 30pc for Reform UK and 27pc for Labour.

Liz Truss, Conservative candidate for South West Norfolk

And it could be even closer in North West Norfolk, with Conservative incumbent James Wild tied on 31pc with Labour rival Tim Leaver.

The survey is based on MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification analysis).

It uses a large-scale online survey of nearly 20,000 participants and population data at a constituency level to project which party will win individual seats at the upcoming election.

Ipsos acknowledges the figures are an estimate of current voting intentions and were put together just as the deadline for candidate submissions had passed, so "the campaign is still likely to intensify in some areas".The nation goes to the polls on July 4 (Image: Press Association)

The company said there were a "number of uncertainties to take into account" and it was "difficult" to take local dynamics into account.

The poll predicting the Conservatives would lose all their Norfolk and Waveney seats - with Labour winning eight, the Liberal Democrats one and Reform UK one - was also an MRP survey, conducted by Survation.

What does Ipsos say could happen?

Broadland and Fakenham (too close to call)

Conservative: 34pc

Labour: 30pc

Reform UK: 16pc 

Lib Dem: 15pc

Green: 6pc

Great Yarmouth (Labour win)

Labour: 44pc

Reform UK: 28pc

Conservative: 21pc

Green: 4pc

Lib Dem: 2pc

Lowestoft (Labour win)

Labour: 43pc

Conservative: 28pc

Reform UK: 21pc

Green: 5pc

Lib Dem: 3pc

Mid Norfolk (Conservative hold)

Conservative: 35pc

Labour: 28pc

Reform UK: 22pc

Lib Dems: 10pc

Green: 5pc

North Norfolk (Too close to call)

Conservative: 38pc

Lib Dem: 35pc

Reform UK: 13pc

Labour: 11pc

Green: 3pc

North West Norfolk (Too close to call)

Conservative: 31pc

Labour: 31pc

Reform UK: 24pc

Lib Dem: 9pc

Green: 5pc

Norwich North (Labour win)

Labour: 51pc

Conservative: 23pc

Reform UK: 17pc

Green: 5pc

Lib Dem: 3pc

Norwich South (Labour hold)

Labour: 61pc

Conservative: 14pc

Green: 13pc

Reform UK: 7pc

Lib Dem: 3pc

South Norfolk (Too close to call)

Labour: 34pc

Conservative: 33pc

Reform UK: 14pc

Lib Dem: 13pc

Green: 6pc

South West Norfolk (Too close to call)

Conservative: 31pc

Reform UK: 30pc

Labour: 27pc

Lib Dem: 8pc

Green: 4pc

Waveney Valley (Too close to call)

Green: 33pc

Reform UK: 29pc

Conservative: 23pc

Labour: 10pc

Lib Dem: 4pc