A leading Norfolk pig farmer says 2023 must be a year that brings profitability back to pork production after a "horrible 12 months" for the industry.
Rob Mutimer, who is chairman of the National Pig Association (NPA), has penned a New Year mesage which says although optimism is growing, many producers are still "haemorrhaging money" after a year of financial woe.
He said soaring animal feed costs, driven by the war in Ukraine and its impact on wheat prices, had been a key factor in 2022.
But while those prices had started to fall, more positive progress was needed to ensure a fair share of reward throughout the supply chain, to encourage struggling farms to invest in their future.
"As we enter 2023, I am slightly more optimistic than I was three months ago – but this year has to be about getting some profitability back into pig farms," he said.
"There are more positives than there have been for a while. I think we have got a shortage of pigs coming, both in this country and in the EU, but how big it will be and when it will materialise, I don’t know.
"The massive input inflation, particularly around feed costs, wrecked 2022 for many pig businesses, but that situation is improving.
"Wheat prices are down by £120 per tonne from the May peak, although a lot of us have bought forward as we were worried about the market being short.
"I am disappointed that the pig price has stopped rising since it hit £2 per kg in September – that figure still isn’t enough for most people to cover their costs.
"But tightening pig supplies and the falling grain price does give me some confidence - we just need to recoup some of the massive losses we’ve endured and get some investment back into the industry.
"People have not been able to invest over the past 18 months, and if they don't start investing in their herds again, they won’t have a lot longer left in the industry and we could see a further contraction."
Mr Mutimer said one big thing to look out for in 2023 will be the next stage of Defra’s review of contractual relations in the pork supply chain.
"In the meantime, we need to have some more grown-up conversations with the supply chain to make sure that there is enough money in it for all parties," he said.
"It is incredibly important that we get some sort of stability across all parts of the chain. There will be more producers who sit down this Christmas, like they did last Christmas, and decide whether they're going to remain in the industry. They need some confidence."
Mr Mutimer said he will also be "keeping a close eye" on government policy developments in 2023, ranging from animal health, veterinary medicines and gene editing to trade negotiations with major pork exporters, such as Canada and the US.
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