There are apocalyptic warnings of what might lie ahead this autumn, as the cost of living crisis intensifies. CHRIS BISHOP considers what might unfold and how the next prime minister might respond
We've had a summer of heatwaves, fires and droughts, but don't expect much respite in this autumn.
Latest estimates say that energy bills are on course to top £5,000 a year, with further rises to the so-called price cap governing what suppliers can charge us, while galloping inflation sends the price of everyday essentials soaring still further.
Consumer champion Martin Lewis, who founded the website moneysavingexpert.com, warns that every £100 a month we pay towards our energy bills could hit £181 by the end of this month and an eye-watering £215 by January.
Our bills will have more than tripled over the course of barely a year in old money. Mr Lewis describes it as a national crisis on the scale of the pandemic.
Yet in many ways it's even worse. You can't vaccinate yourself against poverty or wear a mask on the bus to stop you getting into debt.
There will simply be millions who can't afford to heat their homes, or basic essentials like a hot bath or even putting the oven on, Mr Lewis warns.
How will that play out? He has raised the spectre of protests, strikes and even riots over the coming months.
At the same time, there are other alarm bells sounding. This week, figures showed the economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter of the year.
The Bank of England has forecast the UK will fall into recession towards the end of this year and the downturn will last for the entirety of next year.
And this week we also learned that the country may also face blackouts this winter, with leaked papers suggesting a lack of gas elsewhere in Europe - a knock-on effect of the conflict in Ukraine, as Russia turns the taps off in response to western sanctions - could see us facing power cuts again if we have a cold winter.
Our electricity supply network depends heavily on gas-fired power stations. And nowadays, their output does far more than keep the lights on and the kettle boiling at home.
With so much of life now conducted online, imagine no internet for nine hours a day.
For older readers, these predictions of what might lie ahead this winter may sound oddly familiar.
Fifty years ago, there were power cuts after the miners went on strike, choking coal supplies to power stations.
Electricity was turned off for up to nine hours a day for several days, a three-day week was imposed on industry and more than a million workers laid off.
Later in the 1970s came the winter of discontent, where workers brought the country to a standstill as they walked out on strike over pay.
Earlier, the Labour government had agreed a social contract with the then powerful trade unions to limit pay rises, after inflation soared to more than 23pc in the mid-70s.
But the walk-outs began with a firefighters' strike in 1977, because members could no longer make ends meet on their wages.
How many if us will that be true of this winter?
Almost 100,000 have signed up for Don't Pay UK - an online campaign, where people pledge to cancel their direct debits from October 1 if bills continue rising.
It says: "Mass non-payment is not a new idea, it happened in the UK in the late 80s and 90s, when more than 17m people refused to pay the Poll Tax – helping bring down the government and reversing its harshest measures.
"Even if a fraction of those of us who are paying by direct debit stop our payments, it will be enough to put energy companies in serious trouble, and they know this. We want to bring them to the table and force them to end this crisis."
Don't Pay goes on: "We are facing an absolutely huge social crisis that will affect millions of us if we don’t act now."
It believes if hundreds of thousands default, the sheer weight of numbers will paralyse the courts, while it calls on activists to support those threatened by debt collectors.
There are clear parallels with Can't Pay Won't Pay, the campaign against the Poll Tax - the Margaret Thatcher government's much-despised replacement for the old domestic rates system brought in during the late 1980s.
Margaret Thatcher came to power on a wave of a new kind of economics dubbed Thatcherism. People could buy their council houses or shares in newly-privatised industries like gas and water.
But it all ended in tears for the Iron Lady in November 1990, after a summer which saw riots on the streets over the Poll Tax.
Next month, a new prime minister will come to power - with bookmakers predicting it will be South West Norfolk MP Liz Truss - promising a new vision for the country which will shake it out of its current travails.
But the jury is still out over whether Trussism will stave off the inevitable for those for whom the cost of living has simply risen beyond their means.
In fact it isn't completely clear what Trussism even is yet, with hints of a U-turn over giving people grant aid to help towards their bills among the mixed messages.
“My priority is not taking money from people and then giving it back to them later on. I believe in keeping their own money, and I believe in a low-tax economy," she said on the campaign trail a day or two back . "That’s the way we’re going to drive growth."
But pressed on whether she was ruling out hand-outs in favour of tax cuts, Ms Truss went on: “I’m not going to announce the contents of a budget in the future at this stage in August, but I can assure people I will do all I can to make sure that energy is affordable and that we get through this winter.”
It's debatable how much wriggle room actually exists, how much wind is left in the sails of an economy battered by the pandemic.
Scrapping the so-called green levy on energy will only save a couple of hundred pounds if fuel bills do hit £5,000 a year.
It's also only going to slow down the push towards going green as well as being self-sufficient in energy.
Scrapping the National Insurance levy to pay for health and social care will likewise mean just a few more pounds a month in the average pay packet.
The £400 per household already pledged by Ms Truss's rival Rishi Sunak, while he was chancellor, is likewise not going to help the sums add up for those who simply cannot pay their bills.
Doubling it - if Ms Truss's new chancellor can find more money under the mattress - will do little to soften the blow for those who are struggling to stump up £2,000 a year, let alone £5,000.
A perfect storm is forming. Yet ministers fiddle while Rome burns, kicking the can down the road for the next prime minister.
A so-called summit between ministers and power firm bosses ended in vague assurances they would "work together".
And while the politicians pontificate, the first flickers of social unrest are already on the horizon.
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules here